2026年货币政策定调“适度宽松”

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and growth in 2026, following a year of effective monetary measures in 2025 that boosted market confidence and facilitated economic recovery [1][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Effectiveness - The steady recovery of the real economy in 2025 was significantly supported by proactive monetary policy measures, which included a series of targeted policies to address challenges such as supply-demand imbalances [2][3]. - The monetary policy in 2025 was characterized by rapid total growth, with tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions maintaining ample liquidity [2][4]. - The overall financing cost for society decreased to historically low levels, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Adjustments - The PBOC increased the quota for re-lending aimed at technological innovation and consumption, with 300 billion yuan allocated for tech innovation and 500 billion yuan for consumption and elderly care [3]. - By the end of November 2025, the balance of various loans in renminbi reached 271 trillion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in loans to small and micro enterprises and the manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in 2026, ensuring that monetary supply aligns with economic growth and price stability targets [5][6]. - The proportion of financing methods outside traditional loans exceeded 50% in 2025, indicating a shift towards a more diversified financing structure that aligns with high-quality development goals [6]. - The PBOC aims to improve transparency in loan costs, helping businesses understand their financing expenses better, which is expected to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate demand [7].