光大期货：1月7日有色金属日报

Copper - Copper prices have risen significantly, with LME copper closing at a historical high, while domestic refined copper imports remain unprofitable [3][12] - The Federal Reserve shows internal disagreement on interest rate cuts, with Richmond Fed President Barkin stating rates are at neutral levels, while others suggest cuts could exceed 100 basis points this year [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, Comex inventory rose by 4,996 tons to 461,654 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,989 tons to 93,271 tons [3][12] - Demand for copper is slowing due to high prices, but there remains a rigid purchasing demand in the market [3][12] - Despite the current unfavorable fundamentals for copper, there is strong market expectation for economic recovery in 2026, leading to a bullish sentiment in the short term [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 6.59% to $18,430 per ton, while SHFE nickel reached a limit-up at 147,720 yuan per ton [4][14] - LME nickel inventory increased by 192 tons to 255,546 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 964 tons to 39,388 tons [4][14] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reported a significant decrease in nickel ore production targets for 2026, down to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [4][14] - Domestic social inventory of primary nickel saw a slight increase last week, while both LME and SHFE inventories experienced a decrease [4][14] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a strong upward trend, with AO2605 closing at 2,915 yuan per ton, a 4.14% increase [6][15] - SHFE aluminum also saw a rise, with AL2602 closing at 24,695 yuan per ton, up 2.58% [6][15] - Current aluminum ingot spot prices are under pressure due to increased inventory and reduced outflow from major sales areas [6][15] - The market is experiencing a bullish sentiment driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is supporting aluminum prices [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 8,900 yuan per ton, up 1.37% [7][16] - Polysilicon prices also rose, with the main contract closing at 59,365 yuan per ton, a 1.69% increase [7][16] - The production of industrial silicon is shifting northward, but demand is declining, leading to a potential oversupply situation [7][16] - The industry is expected to see a reduction in polysilicon supply due to self-regulation and coordinated production cuts [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures reached a limit-up at 137,940 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 8,000 yuan to 127,500 yuan per ton [8][17] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, with various sources contributing to the increase [8][17] - Forecasts indicate a slight decrease in lithium carbonate production for January 2026, with expected declines in several categories [8][17] - Market sentiment is sensitive to geopolitical and policy factors affecting lithium supply, with expectations for price increases to be transmitted downstream [8][17]