光大期货：1月7日能源化工日报

Oil Market - Oil prices fell again, with WTI February contract closing down $1.19 at $57.13 per barrel, a decline of 2.04% [2] - Brent March contract closed down $1.06 at $60.70 per barrel, a decline of 1.72% [2] - API data showed a decrease in US crude oil inventories by 2.766 million barrels last week, compared to an increase of 1.747 million barrels the previous week [2] - Discussions are ongoing between the US and Venezuela regarding the export of Venezuelan oil to the US, with potential shipments of 30 to 50 million barrels of high-quality oil [2][14] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.73% to 2479 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 0.27% to 2925 yuan/ton [15] - Singapore is expected to see stable arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in the coming weeks, increasing local inventories [15] - Demand for low-sulfur fuel oil remains weak due to holiday impacts, while high-sulfur fuel oil demand is supported by an increase in ships installing desulfurization towers [15] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.35% to 3144 yuan/ton [16] - Recent arrivals of diluted asphalt at ports remain stable, with supply expected to be unaffected by geopolitical events [16] - The market is anticipated to stabilize with potential upward pressure on prices due to raw material supply uncertainties [16] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures saw the main contract RU2605 rise by 260 yuan/ton to 16050 yuan/ton [17] - Natural rubber inventories in Qingdao increased by 3.99% to 451,200 tons, while bonded zone inventories rose by 8.89% to 93,100 tons [17] - The macro environment is improving, but tire demand is weakening, leading to expectations of price fluctuations [17] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5150 yuan/ton, up 2.06%, while EG2605 closed at 3838 yuan/ton, up 2.84% [18] - PX futures closed at 7336 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, with spot prices at $903/ton [18] - The polyester production load is expected to decline further in January-February, leading to market concerns [18] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2268 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $256-$260/ton [19] - Domestic production is expected to increase slightly, while imports are projected to decline from high levels [19] - The market is expected to maintain a strong oscillation due to supply and demand dynamics [19] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China are reported, with various production margins noted [20] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly in early January [20] - Overall, polyolefins are expected to experience price fluctuations around the bottom [20] PVC - PVC prices in East China have increased, with various grades reported at higher price ranges [21] - Supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook [21] - The overall market is expected to maintain a bottom oscillation with limited upward potential [21] Urea - Urea futures prices continued to rise, with the main contract closing at 1778 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase [22] - The market saw price increases in various regions, with production levels expected to recover slightly [22] - Demand is showing signs of divergence, with some regions maintaining high sales rates while others decline [22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1190 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [23] - Supply is expected to increase as previously maintained facilities resume operations [23] - Demand remains weak, leading to a potential increase in market looseness [23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1092 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [24] - The domestic float glass market price remained stable, with production levels expected to decrease due to maintenance [24] - Demand is expected to decline as downstream operations slow down, leading to cautious market sentiment [24]