12年10倍的真相：E大卖的不是策略，而是心理按摩

Core Viewpoint - The analysis reveals that the "Long Win Index Investment Plan" by E Da has underperformed compared to both equity fund indices and a simple balanced strategy over the past six years, indicating that the perceived "excess returns" may actually be a costly "psychological comfort" [7][8][63]. Performance Analysis - The Long Win Index Investment Plan has recorded a cumulative return of 67.9% and an annualized return of 5.25% from July 1, 2015, to December 31, 2025, which is lower than the 81.7% cumulative return and 6.07% annualized return of the Wande Equity Fund Index [17][73]. - The performance of the Long Win Index Investment Plan during the period from July 1, 2016, to December 31, 2025, shows a cumulative return of 61.8% and an annualized return of 5.39%, again underperforming the Wande Equity Fund Index which achieved a cumulative return of 97.3% and an annualized return of 7.69% [20][76]. - In the period after the completion of the investment strategy from April 1, 2019, to December 31, 2025, the Long Win Index Investment Plan achieved a mere 5.07% annualized return, significantly lagging behind the 9.60% annualized return of the Wande Equity Fund Index [22][78]. Strategy Critique - The analysis suggests that the complex strategy employed by E Da, which includes macro analysis and frequent trading, has not yielded superior results compared to a simple balanced strategy, leading to the conclusion that the complexity may be an unnecessary burden [50][110]. - The "Long Win Index Investment Plan" is criticized for its "performance dilution" through the division of investments into 150 parts, which creates a false sense of achievement without substantial overall gains [24][86][88]. - The strategy's reliance on mean reversion in a volatile market has proven ineffective, particularly in the context of the U.S. stock market and gold investments, where the approach has led to missed opportunities [94][96]. Emotional Value and Investor Perception - Despite the lackluster performance, the emotional value derived from the Long Win Index Investment Plan has kept investors engaged, as it provides a sense of immediate gratification through frequent small wins [83][89]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of evaluating the actual performance data of investment strategies rather than being swayed by narratives or emotional appeals from financial influencers [106][107].