从委内瑞拉到巴拿马运河、格陵兰岛 预测市场对特朗普政府后续军事行动下注近250万美元！

Core Insights - Market traders are increasingly betting on potential international turmoil following President Trump's military actions in Venezuela, indicating a shift in focus towards other geopolitical hotspots [1] - Analysts suggest that Trump's confidence in using military force has grown, marking a more aggressive stance in his second term [1] Group 1: Predictions and Market Reactions - On the prediction market Kalshi, the probability of Trump "reclaiming the Panama Canal" has risen to over 35%, up from less than 30% the previous weekend [1] - The likelihood of the U.S. "controlling any part of Greenland" increased to 38%, an 8 percentage point rise from the previous week [1] - Total betting amounts on these issues have approached $2.5 million on Kalshi [1] Group 2: Greenland Acquisition Discussions - A senior U.S. official indicated that Trump is exploring various options for acquiring Greenland, including purchasing it from Denmark and military options [2] - The White House views the acquisition of Greenland as a national security priority, despite opposition from NATO leaders [2] - Trump has repeatedly expressed the need for Greenland, stating that military force is not off the table [2] Group 3: Broader Military Predictions - New prediction markets on Polymarket have emerged, with significant betting amounts on potential U.S. military actions against Colombia and Cuba [3] - On Kalshi, the probability of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stepping down before next year is around 54%, with market size nearing $1 million [3] - Trump's previous military actions against Iran have heightened tensions in the region, with threats of severe retaliation if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program [3]