2026年,贵金属的牛市还能走多远

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold and silver prices are expected to continue reaching historical highs in 2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing external uncertainties, with analysts predicting further upward potential for gold stocks in 2026 [1] - Analysts anticipate that gold prices will range between $4,800 and $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with JPMorgan highlighting the ongoing trend of diversification in official reserves and investor assets as a key driver for this increase [2] - The structural demand for gold from central banks remains a significant driving force, with many economies having over 50% of their total reserves in gold, indicating substantial potential for asset reallocation in the market [2] Group 2 - The precious metals sector is expected to have around 30% more upside in 2026, with fundamental factors such as geopolitical risks and debt concerns supporting the long-term bullish trend for gold assets [3] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing supply-demand pressures in the U.S. long-term bonds will keep gold as a viable alternative for asset allocation, alongside the increasing likelihood of second inflation in the U.S. [3] - The anticipated influx of investments into gold ETFs following interest rate cuts in the U.S. and Europe is expected to further stimulate demand for gold [3]