突破156！日元多空绞杀 美联储日央行政策博弈定生死

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation around the key level of 156.7000, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, interest rate differentials, and geopolitical factors [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to complete two interest rate hikes by the end of 2025, raising the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, indicating a significant shift from its ultra-loose monetary policy [1]. - The divergence between the BoJ's hawkish signals and the Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts creates a competitive dynamic in the currency market [1]. - Market skepticism regarding the pace of future rate hikes in Japan exists due to factors like energy subsidies and stable food prices, which may keep inflation moderate and limit the speed of policy tightening [1]. Economic Data - Recent US manufacturing data has shown mixed results, reinforcing market perceptions of slowing economic momentum, which is a key factor in limiting the dollar's rebound potential [2]. - Japan's December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0, indicating a stabilization in demand, which supports the BoJ's potential for further rate hikes [2]. - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is anticipated to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, thereby affecting the USD/JPY exchange rate [2]. Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY is currently in an upward channel, but the momentum has slowed down recently, with daily moving averages flattening, indicating a consolidation phase [3]. - Key support levels are identified at the 155 mark and the 50-day moving average, while resistance is noted at the November 20 high of 157.89 [3]. - The interest rate differential remains a crucial variable influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate, with the divergence in monetary policies expected to continue into 2026 [3].