澳元开年走强 通胀数据成关键锚点

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is strengthening against the US dollar (USD), driven by diverging monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The RBA maintained its interest rate at 3.60% in December, signaling the end of its rate-cutting cycle, while the Fed has lowered rates three times to a range of 3.5%-3.75% in 2025 [1] - Market expectations suggest that the RBA may raise rates nearly twice in 2026, while the Fed is anticipated to lower rates only twice [1] - The divergence in monetary policy is expected to support the AUD as capital flows towards AUD-denominated assets [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The RBA has raised its inflation forecast, predicting a CPI of 3.7% by June 2026, with the governor indicating no further easing, which sends a hawkish signal [1] - The Australian government has revised its GDP growth forecast upward, indicating improvements in non-mining investment and marginally better fiscal conditions [1] - However, the AUD remains vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which is a key export [1] Group 3: Short-term Volatility and Predictions - Short-term volatility in the AUD is expected due to Australian inflation data and US non-farm payroll reports, with potential for significant fluctuations [2] - Institutions are optimistic about the AUD, with forecasts suggesting it could rise to 0.75 by year-end according to the National Australia Bank, and to 0.70 according to Westpac [2] - Key resistance and support levels for the AUD are identified at 0.6750 and 0.6710, respectively, with long-term trends dependent on the RBA's rate hike pace and commodity prices [2]