欧元微跌待政策通胀指引

Core Viewpoint - The euro to dollar exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight decline, as market attention shifts to inflation data and central bank policy signals from both Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The euro to dollar exchange rate opened and fluctuated within a narrow range, with a high followed by a retreat, indicating limited overall volatility [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed a slight rebound, exerting pressure on the euro exchange rate [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Multiple factors are contributing to the pressure on the exchange rate, including rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and increased expectations for investment-grade bond issuance, which strengthen the dollar index [1] - The economic fundamentals in the eurozone are weak, with a downward revision of the December manufacturing PMI and ongoing contraction in core manufacturing activities, raising concerns about growth momentum in the eurozone [1] - Divergence in policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve is affecting the exchange rate, with the market awaiting clearer signals on the Fed's interest rate cut path and closely monitoring the eurozone inflation report [1] Group 3: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the euro to dollar exchange rate is likely to continue its range-bound oscillation, with technical indicators showing a cooling trend in momentum [1] - A breakthrough in the exchange rate direction will depend on key data guidance, with potential support for the euro if eurozone inflation data exceeds expectations, while strong U.S. non-farm payrolls could further boost the dollar [1] Group 4: Long-term Perspective - From a medium to long-term perspective, the growth rate differential between the U.S. and eurozone economies will be a core factor influencing exchange rate movements [2] - Additionally, the adjustment pace of interest rate policies by the ECB and the Fed, the recovery process of eurozone manufacturing, and changes in geopolitical situations will be important variables driving exchange rate fluctuations [2]