合成橡胶：基本面支撑有限 BR受商品氛围带动偏强

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 6, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9150 (+200) RMB/ton; CIF China price is 975 (+0) USD/ton; the market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11750 (+100) RMB/ton, with a price difference of -3300 (-100) RMB/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber - Thai mix, and a basis difference of -80 (-85) RMB/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production was 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 144,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%; semi-steel tire production was 58.39 million units, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; full-steel tire production was 12.86 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - As of January 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 71.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.8%; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 77.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 66.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 57.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [2] Inventory Levels - As of January 2, butadiene port inventory was 44,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,400 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%; trader inventory was 7,180 tons, an increase of 1,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on January 6, a 50,000 tons/year unit at Maoming Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on January 5, expected to restart at the end of January; another 100,000 tons/year unit is currently under maintenance, expected to restart around January 21 [4] Market Analysis - On January 6, following the New Year holiday, the rubber sector showed a strong performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closing at 11,830 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous day's settlement price. From the cost side, three domestic butadiene units are expected to restart in the second half of January, with expectations of reduced net imports due to increased exports and decreased imports, but overall supply remains ample, and port inventory is expected to remain high. On the supply side, Maoming Petrochemical's styrene-butadiene rubber units will gradually restart, and the profit margins for styrene-butadiene rubber are favorable, with other units operating at high levels. On the demand side, tire and other rubber product industries are expected to have stable operating rates, although there may be some stocking demand before the Spring Festival, a concentrated shutdown may occur from late January to February. Overall, cost support is limited, and supply-demand dynamics are weakening, providing limited fundamental support for BR price increases, with attention needed on macroeconomic disturbances [5]