期权交易员看涨美债情绪升温 押注10年期收益率将跌破4%

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury options traders are increasing their bets that the 10-year Treasury yield will break below the 4% mark in the coming weeks, reaching its lowest level since November [1][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Since late December, bullish sentiment in the options market has been steadily increasing, with traders currently in a wait-and-see mode as key economic data is set to be released [1][3] - Recent data shows a significant increase in bullish positions for March 10-year options, with a notable buyer betting that yields will drop from just below 4.2% to around 3.95% [1][3] - The options set to expire on February 20 will cover the Federal Reserve's policy decision on January 28, with expectations that the Fed may hold rates steady after three consecutive rate cuts [1][3] Group 2: Economic Data and Expectations - A series of labor market data releases is anticipated, particularly the non-farm payroll report for December, which economists expect to show modest job growth [1][3] - Investors are actively buying positions to hedge against the risk of rising 10-year Treasury yields, with notable activity in February 10-year call options expiring on January 23 [1][3] Group 3: Contrasting Market Sentiment - Meanwhile, a weekly survey by JPMorgan indicates a shift to bearish sentiment in the cash market, with a significant increase in short positions [2][4] - If subsequent data raises concerns about economic growth, this could stimulate short covering demand, potentially leading to lower yields [2][4]