非洲天然气产业重心正在南移

Core Insights - Natural gas is the only fossil fuel expected to see significant growth in global primary energy consumption due to its low-carbon transition attributes and flexible applications, particularly driven by rising demand in Asian markets [1] - The focus of Africa's natural gas industry is shifting from traditional hubs in North Africa, such as Egypt and Algeria, to sub-Saharan Africa, which holds over 70% of the continent's recoverable natural gas resources [1] - Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to see LNG export volumes surge from 35.7 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 98 billion cubic meters by 2034, representing an increase of nearly 175% [1] Industry Developments - The natural gas market in sub-Saharan Africa is taking shape, with Nigeria advancing its "Gas Decade" plan supported by over 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and over $8 billion in final investment decisions for gas projects in the past 18 months [2] - Key infrastructure projects, such as the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline, are progressing, and there is significant growth in demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and compressed natural gas (CNG) in transportation and industrial sectors [2] - Senegal and Mauritania are collaborating on a cross-border gas field with recoverable reserves exceeding 150 trillion cubic feet, aiming to produce and export LNG by 2025 with an initial capacity of 2.3 million tons per year [2] - Mozambique is emerging rapidly with over 150 trillion cubic feet of recoverable reserves, and TotalEnergies plans to restart a $20 billion LNG project, while the Rovuma LNG project is expected to have an annual capacity of 18 million tons [2] - Tanzania's natural gas reserves of 57 trillion cubic feet, mostly in deepwater fields, are being developed through a $42 billion LNG project led by Shell and Equinor, targeting an annual capacity of 10 million tons by 2029 [2] Market Dynamics - The maturation of the sub-Saharan LNG market is attributed to the synergy between resource endowment and market demand, along with policy optimization, technological innovation, and regional cooperation [3] - Despite challenges such as regional instability and weak infrastructure, the overall trend towards the establishment of the sub-Saharan African natural gas market is seen as unstoppable [3]