Core Viewpoint - The aluminum sector continues its upward trend, with significant stock price increases for companies like Nanshan Aluminum International, China Hongqiao, and China Aluminum, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Nanshan Aluminum International's stock rose by 12.13% to HKD 61, China Hongqiao increased by 4.08% to HKD 36.7, and China Aluminum gained 3.32% to HKD 13.71 [1] Group 2: Supply Forecast - CICC forecasts that aluminum supply will initially decline before increasing, with a limited overall increment expected; the net increase in electrolytic aluminum for 2026 is projected to be approximately 1.1 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - The anticipated rollout of Indonesia's long-term electrolytic aluminum projects may be slower than expected due to power supply constraints, despite the apparent capacity [1] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with supply-side structural reforms and dual carbon goals effectively closing the expansion channel, leading to increasing supply rigidity [1] - Although there are some supply disruptions overseas, the overall increase in supply is expected to remain limited through 2026 [1] - Geopolitical factors affecting precious metals and copper prices are likely to support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue fluctuating at a strong level due to low overseas aluminum inventories and supply-side disturbances [1]
港股异动 | 铝业股延续上涨趋势 海外供应扰动背景下 铝价或具备较大补涨空间