台海观澜 | 倒计时两年，2028年两岸关系的3个时间节点

Core Viewpoint - The critical time node regarding the Taiwan issue is identified as 2028, with three significant dates: January 8 or January 15, May 20, and the U.S. election day. These dates will influence cross-strait relations and potential outcomes for Taiwan's political landscape [1]. Group 1: Upcoming Elections and Their Implications - The next Taiwan election is projected to occur on January 8 or January 15, 2028, which could mark a significant turning point in cross-strait relations depending on the election outcome [2]. - If the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins, it would signify 16 years of DPP governance, potentially triggering provisions in the Anti-Secession Law regarding the loss of peaceful unification possibilities [2]. - The election results will determine the direction of cross-strait relations, with a DPP victory possibly leading to a more aggressive unification approach, while a victory for the opposition could favor peaceful unification [2]. Group 2: DPP's Position and Legislative Actions - The likelihood of the DPP pushing for "de jure independence" is considered low, as evidenced by the withdrawal of a proposal to change the name of the cross-strait relations law, which would have escalated tensions [4][5]. - The DPP may still employ various strategies to promote "Taiwan independence" rhetoric and deepen cross-strait tensions, despite the reduced likelihood of formal independence actions [5]. Group 3: Mainland China's Response and Future Scenarios - Mainland China's actions leading up to the 2028 election are characterized as warning signals, with potential for escalation if the DPP remains in power post-election [6][7]. - The inauguration of the new Taiwanese leader on May 20, 2028, will be pivotal, as China's subsequent actions will depend on the leader's inaugural speech and stance on cross-strait relations [7]. - The outcome of the U.S. election, likely to occur around the same time, could also influence China's policy towards Taiwan, particularly if a Democratic administration is perceived to be more lenient towards "Taiwan independence" [7].