供需缺口+政策催化共振，稀土ETF嘉实（516150）领涨有色赛道

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the increasing demand and supply constraints in the rare earth industry, leading to price increases and investment opportunities [2][3]. Group 2 - As of January 7, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.02%, while the rare earth industry index rose by 2.55%, with several stocks experiencing significant gains, including Zhong Rare Earth and Greenland Technology [1]. - The rare earth ETF managed by Jiashi (516150) increased by 2.66%, with a trading volume of 228 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.79%. Over the past six months, this fund has seen a growth of 64.35% [1]. Group 3 - China is considering tightening export license reviews for medium and heavy rare earths, which could significantly impact Japan, as it relies almost entirely on China for these materials. If restrictions last for three months, Japan could face a loss of 660 billion yen, escalating to 2.6 trillion yen if prolonged for a year [2]. - Myanmar's Kachin State plans to halt all rare earth mining activities by December 31, 2025, which previously contributed about 40% of the global supply of medium and heavy rare earths. This will lead to an 80% year-on-year decline in rare earth exports to China [2]. Group 4 - The domestic mining quota for medium and heavy rare earths has been frozen at 19,200 tons per year for five consecutive years, with no increase planned for 2026. The global demand for medium and heavy rare earths is projected to exceed 40,000 tons in 2026, while supply is estimated at around 24,000 tons, resulting in a supply gap of 16,000 to 20,000 tons [2]. Group 5 - Prices for rare earth elements are rising due to supply constraints, with the average price of dysprosium reported at 1,762,500 yuan per ton, increasing by 10,000 yuan in a single day. The average price of dysprosium oxide is 1,352,500 yuan per ton, up by 2,500 yuan [2]. Group 6 - Demand for rare earths is surging in sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and humanoid robots, with projected demand for rare earth permanent magnets in the electric vehicle sector reaching 88,000 tons by 2026, and 44,000 tons in the wind power sector [3]. - The overall strength in the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to create a synergistic effect, with upward adjustments in economic growth forecasts for major global economies and a weaker US dollar providing a favorable macro environment for rising prices [3].