One Polymarket user made more than $400,000 in profits betting on Maduro’s capture on an investment made within 24 hours of the military action

Core Insights - The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has led to significant financial gains for a Polymarket user, who made a profit exceeding $400,000 from bets on Maduro's exit by January 31, 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Investment and Profit - A Polymarket account invested over $30,000 on the prediction of Maduro's exit, resulting in a net gain of $436,759.61 following his arrest [2]. - The account was created shortly before Maduro's capture and focused solely on bets related to his exit and potential U.S. military action against Venezuela [2]. Group 2: Insider Trading Concerns - The timing of the account's creation and the substantial winnings have raised suspicions of insider trading, as the odds of Maduro's capture were considered low, at 5.5% on Polymarket and 7% on Kalshi [3]. - Entrepreneur Joe Pompliano noted that insider trading is not only permitted but encouraged on prediction markets, suggesting that any insider knowledge would likely come from high-level government or military sources [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are under scrutiny for potential insider trading, with past instances raising questions about the integrity of the platforms [6]. - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates prediction markets, but unlike gambling, these markets lack stringent consumer protections [8].