Iraq’s Gas Breakthrough Could Rewrite the Middle East Power Map

Core Viewpoint - The West's longstanding focus on military influence in Iraq has hindered efforts to reduce Baghdad's dependency on Iranian energy, but recent legislative changes signal a shift towards addressing this issue more aggressively [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Changes and Geopolitical Context - The introduction of the 'No Iranian Energy Act' aims to sanction the importation of Iranian natural gas to Iraq, reflecting a strategic shift in U.S. policy under President Trump's administration [1]. - The 'Iran Waiver Rescissions Act' would permanently freeze Iranian-sanctioned assets and prevent future waivers from U.S. Presidents, indicating a tightening of sanctions against Iran [1]. - The geopolitical landscape is characterized by a struggle between Western interests aiming to reduce Iranian influence and the interests of China and Russia, which benefit from Iraq's dependency on Iranian energy [3]. Group 2: Iraq's Energy Dependency and Development Plans - Iraq relies on Iran for approximately 40% of its power supply through gas and electricity imports, which has led to significant political and economic consequences, including muted dissent and a lack of urgency to develop domestic gas resources [2]. - The Oil Ministry is expediting the development of the Gharraf and Nassiriyah gas projects, with operations expected to begin by early 2027 and a production capacity of 200 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) [3]. - Iraq's gas reserves are estimated at around 3.5 trillion cubic meters (Tcm), with the potential to recover up to 8 Tcm, positioning the country as a significant player in the global gas market [3][4]. Group 3: Technical Solutions and Historical Context - Iraq has previously engaged with Baker Hughes to capture flared gas, aiming to recover around 200 mmscf/d from the Gharraf and Nassiriyah fields, which could supply approximately 400 megawatts to the Iraqi grid [4][5]. - Despite having access to technical solutions for gas capture, Iraq's dependency on Iranian imports remains a challenge, with geopolitical pressures now acting as a potential catalyst for change [6]. - The outcome of Iraq's energy strategy may depend on the political leadership following recent elections, particularly whether a pro-Iran faction gains influence [6].