花旗：铜价或于1月突破每吨1.4万美元关口

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup predicts that copper prices will rise to $14,000 per ton in the next three months due to bullish momentum, but may peak this month unless new catalysts emerge [1][2]. Price Forecast - Citigroup maintains its forecast for the average copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) at $13,000 per ton for the second to fourth quarters [1][2]. Bullish Logic - The bullish logic driving copper prices includes market momentum, further upward positioning, and solid bullish fundamentals, which are expected to support short-term price increases [1][2]. - Key factors mentioned include U.S. cross-market arbitrage and tariff-related dynamics, demand and growth expectations, constrained copper supply, and currency depreciation tail risks [1][2]. Price Confidence - The company expresses insufficient confidence in current copper price levels, suggesting that if prices exceed $13,000 per ton, subsequent gains are likely to be retraced [1][2]. Supply and Demand Balance - Citigroup believes that the current price level will stimulate more scrap copper supply, promote the use of substitutes, and encourage copper conservation, leading to a balanced global copper spot market by 2026 [1][2]. Cross-Market Arbitrage - The sentiment of cross-market arbitrage between the LME and the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) is identified as a core pillar supporting recent copper price increases, though it is susceptible to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. Tariff Expectations - Citigroup's basic expectation is that refined copper tariffs will ultimately not be implemented or will be alleviated through exemptions for U.S. regional partners such as Chile [1][2].