Group 1 - Eurozone major economies are experiencing a greater-than-expected slowdown in inflation by December 2025, while economic growth remains stable, indicating that price pressures are gradually dissipating as anticipated by the European Central Bank (ECB) [1] - Germany's December Consumer Price Index (CPI) preliminary value shows a year-on-year increase of only 1.8%, below the forecast of 2.1%, with a month-on-month figure unchanged, also lower than the expected rise of 0.3% [1] - The harmonized CPI in Germany rose by 2.0% year-on-year, again below the forecast of 2.2%, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, confirming a rapid alleviation of price pressures in the eurozone's largest economy [1] Group 2 - France's December CPI preliminary value increased by 0.8%, the lowest level in seven months, slightly below the expected 0.9%, while the harmonized CPI rose by 0.7%, also below the forecast of 0.8% [2] - The slowdown in inflation in France is primarily attributed to a more significant decline in energy prices, particularly for oil products, while food prices saw a slight acceleration in growth to 1.7% [2] - The overall eurozone inflation data is expected to show a decline to the target level of 2%, with economists slightly raising core inflation forecasts due to a more optimistic outlook for GDP growth in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Investor sentiment is shifting regarding the ECB's interest rate path for 2026, with market pricing indicating almost zero probability of rate hikes before December 2026 and about 24% probability before March 2027 [3] - The combination of easing inflation pressures and slowing growth reinforces market expectations that the ECB will maintain a loose monetary stance for an extended period [3] - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel stated that borrowing costs are likely to remain stable for a long time unless unexpected shocks occur [3]
欧元区主要经济体通胀下降 欧洲央行加息预期降温
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-07 05:34