Ge Long Hui A P P·2026-01-07 05:39Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.85 to 6.45 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.8% to 55.2% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between 1.63 to 2.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44% to 97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% to 48% [1] - The company's performance in Q4 2025 is anticipated to exceed market expectations [1] Nickel Price Outlook - The average nickel price in Q4 2025 is expected to be 15,000 USD, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce mining quota issuance in 2026, which may support nickel prices; the price has risen from a low of 14,500 USD to 16,800 USD in December [1] - If nickel prices maintain this level, the company's profit per ton of nickel could increase by 1,000 to 4,000 USD, contributing over 4 billion yuan in profit [1] Product Growth - The production of ternary cathodes is expected to reach nearly 100,000 tons in 2025, doubling year-on-year, while ternary precursors are projected to be around 110,000 tons, with stable growth expected in 2026 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 from 6.0/9.0/10.9 billion yuan to 6.2/10.7/12.4 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 50%/72%/15% [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are projected to be 22x/13x/11x, with a target PE of 20x for 2026 and a target price of 113 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]