Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a structural transformation by 2026, with potential improvements in real estate dragging down or stabilizing, while infrastructure work may accelerate. However, overseas demand is likely to remain suppressed, leading to challenges in supply adjustments for steel mills under high operational pressure. The industry is anticipated to seek a new price equilibrium, with structural opportunities emerging, particularly in special steel as domestic substitution accelerates, potentially enhancing profitability and valuation levels [1][2][3]. Group 1 - The black steel prices are expected to seek a new equilibrium downward, with projected price centers for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled sheets at 2960, 3050, and 3850 yuan respectively by 2026 [2]. - The profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled sheets are estimated to be 127, 66, and 346 yuan per ton respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 77, 18, and 29 yuan, although these figures are below the ten-year median margins [2]. Group 2 - The steel industry is entering a new phase of "reduction and quality enhancement," with increasing differentiation among companies. Leading firms are expected to emerge from the industry downturn, driven by stricter capacity replacement policies and new industry standards focusing on low emissions and green production [3]. - The special steel sector is projected to benefit from high domestic manufacturing demand and increased investment in advanced manufacturing, leading to a significant shift towards high-value-added areas and improved competitiveness for special steel companies [3].
中金：钢铁反内卷值得期待 供给出清有望提速