高盛称美投资者低配黄金或催化涨势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite gold reaching new highs in 2025 and touching the $4500 mark, U.S. institutional and individual investors remain lukewarm towards gold exposure, which Goldman Sachs identifies as a "significant structural opportunity" that could drive gold prices higher [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that the size of U.S. gold ETFs is 6 basis points lower than its peak in 2012, primarily due to the overall growth of investment portfolios outpacing gold price and trading volume expansion. As of the second quarter of last year, gold ETFs accounted for only 0.17% (17 basis points) of the $112 trillion stock and bond assets, indicating a minimal share [2] - Less than half of large institutions hold gold ETFs, with allocation ratios typically between 10-50 basis points, and the average long-term institutional allocation is only 20 basis points. This low allocation contrasts sharply with mainstream sell-side recommendations from firms like Citigroup, UBS, and Morgan Stanley, which advocate for increased gold allocation [2] Group 2 - Catalyst Funds' Chief Investment Officer Miller emphasizes that the long-term upward momentum for gold is driven by deep changes in the global monetary system, with the dollar's reserve status being weakened by weaponization of sanctions, aggressive tariffs, and ballooning deficits. Central banks' continuous gold purchases, regardless of price, provide strong support [3] - Miller criticizes holding bonds when inflation exceeds nominal yields, suggesting that gold is becoming a defensive anchor, and recommends measuring wealth in gold to reflect true purchasing power. He anticipates that even with a slowdown, gold's annual growth rate could maintain between 10%-20% [3] Group 3 - The latest spot gold market analysis indicates that gold made a strong upward move, breaking previous highs, but faced a significant pullback, with the low point near the previous day's low of $4460. Key levels to watch include the early morning high of $4500 and the low of $4460, which will determine the market's direction [4] - The current market rhythm suggests that maintaining a bullish outlook requires avoiding a second bottom, with a stronger trend expected if the European session breaks above the high. Conversely, if the price remains below $4500 or drops below $4460, a corrective pattern may emerge, although the overall shape remains predominantly bullish [4]