PVC市场弱现实强预期 后续继续上行空间有限

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in PVC futures prices, with the main contract reaching 4987.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of 2.32% [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, the operating rate continues to decline month-on-month due to maintenance and reduced load at some facilities, although overall supply remains high. It is projected that only 300,000 tons of new capacity will be added by Zhejiang Jiahua by 2026, indicating the end of supply expansion [2] - Demand is affected by seasonal maintenance of chlor-alkali plants, with existing maintenance plans being limited. The industry operating rate is expected to remain at a high level, but the construction and real estate sectors are currently in a low-demand season, leading to a downward trend in the operating rates of hard products like pipes and profiles [2] - As of December 26, 2025, social inventory stands at approximately 1.06 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.43% and a significant year-on-year increase of 31.92% [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the supply is expected to remain high while domestic demand slows down, leading to a bearish fundamental outlook. The valuation of the 05 contract remains significantly elevated, indicating that PVC is likely to exhibit weak performance with strong expectations, and further upward movement in prices is limited, with expectations of price stability at the bottom [2]