中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任陈文玲：乱世黄金再次得到验证

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to reach historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply-demand imbalances, and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with a cumulative increase of over 70% in gold prices during the year [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - Geopolitical turmoil is identified as the primary driver of the current surge in gold prices, with events such as the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict contributing to increased uncertainty [2]. - The restructuring of the international monetary system from a unipolar to a multipolar reserve system is accelerating, with central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Russia, and India, increasing their gold reserves as a form of diversification [2]. - Concerns over the purchasing power and value retention of the U.S. dollar are rising, exacerbated by the U.S. federal debt surpassing $38 trillion, leading to a reassessment of the dollar's safety and a renewed emphasis on gold as a "non-sovereign asset" and ultimate safe haven [2]. Group 2: Characteristics of Gold Price Surge - The significant rise in gold prices in 2025 is characterized by a "multi-logical resonance," combining long-term trends from the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, traditional geopolitical risk, inflation hedging, and the impact of "de-dollarization" [1][2]. - The current environment is described as a "great upheaval," validating the age-old logic of purchasing gold during chaotic times, reinforcing its status as a critical investment choice [2].