烧碱1月计划检修企业少 预计缺少持续向上驱动力

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda futures market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 4.43% to 2263.0 CNY/ton as of January 7 [1]. Market Summary - On January 6, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in the Zhejiang market ranged from 980 to 1020 CNY/ton, while the price for 48% ion membrane caustic soda was between 1450 and 1550 CNY/ton [2]. - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 155,500 long positions and 170,100 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.91. The net position increased by 6,460 contracts to -14,500 contracts compared to the previous day [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent recovery of certain facilities in North China, East China, and South China has led to an increase in the national average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda [3]. - Newhu Futures indicates that high operating rates on the supply side are expected to continue, with additional capacity creating further supply pressure. Although profits have been compressed, companies can still maintain production, supported by good demand for liquid chlorine. However, the demand for caustic soda is expected to remain weak due to high production and inventory levels in alumina, leading to anticipated production cuts in Shanxi and Henan [4]. - Huatai Futures notes that with fewer planned maintenance activities in January, supply pressure is unlikely to ease. The non-aluminum downstream sector is entering a seasonal decline, and the demand for caustic soda is expected to contract due to the impact of anti-competitive policies on alumina [4].