地缘风险与降息预期共振 白银暴力拉涨5%领贵金属牛市

Group 1 - Gold prices surged to around $4500 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a daily increase of over 1% [1][2] - Silver prices rose over 5%, reaching a historical high, with strong momentum despite being in overbought territory; a breakthrough above $81.44 could open an upward channel to $82.00-$85.87, while $80.00 serves as key support [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Venezuelan crisis, following the U.S. military action and the capture of President Maduro, may continue to support traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 2 - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated that most officials believe further rate cuts are appropriate as long as inflation continues to decline, with an 82% probability that rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting [2] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. employment report, with expectations of a 55,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%; stronger-than-expected data could pressure gold prices [2] - Silver has a bullish long-term outlook, with potential prices reaching $100, $120, or even higher, while the $70 level remains a strong support despite a significant adjustment in late 2025 [3]