美联储降息博弈 2026年政策走向之争

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and economic data are creating a complex landscape for potential interest rate cuts in 2026, with market expectations continuously adjusting amid internal divisions within the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - The current target range for the Federal Funds Rate is maintained at 3.50%-3.75%, following a 25 basis point cut in December 2025, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year [1]. - The FOMC decision was passed with a vote of 9-3, indicating significant internal disagreement, the highest dissent since 2019 [1]. - Divergent views among Fed officials are evident, with some advocating for aggressive cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December 2025 showed a strong increase of 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 180,000, marking the largest monthly gain since March 2023 [2]. - Despite robust job growth, wage growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, suggesting a moderation in labor market heat and a lack of excessive inflationary pressure [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low, slightly up from its yearly low but still consistent with full employment goals, providing a buffer for policy adjustments [2]. Group 3: Inflation Metrics - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in December 2025, stabilizing at this level for three consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3]. - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, indicating manageable inflation pressures that could allow for potential rate cuts [3]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market probabilities for a 25 basis point cut in January are only 18.3%, with an 81.7% chance of maintaining current rates; the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by March is 40.7% [3]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates only one expected rate cut in 2026, while major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict two cuts, lowering rates to the 3.00%-3.25% range [3]. - Some institutions, such as Wells Fargo, suggest the possibility of three cuts throughout the year, depending on economic data trends [3]. Group 5: Personnel Changes and Market Sentiment - Fed Chair Powell's term ends in May 2026, with potential successors leaning towards dovish policies, which could exert downward pressure on the dollar [4]. - The Fed has initiated a short-term Treasury purchase program to maintain adequate reserves, raising concerns about potential distortions in policy signals and interest rate expectations [4]. - Economic fundamentals, including labor market trends, inflation persistence, and growth resilience, will directly influence policy adjustments, with any unexpected data fluctuations potentially altering the rate cut trajectory [4].