张尧浠:避险需求持续推动 金价日内先空后多

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rebound and remain above the midline and short-term moving averages, indicating a bullish trend with expectations of reaching new historical highs [1][11]. Price Movement - On January 6, gold opened at $4,448.62 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,427.94, and reached a high of $4,497.21, closing at $4,494.53, with a daily fluctuation of $69.27 and a gain of $45.91, or 1.03% [1][11]. Influencing Factors - The bullish trend is supported by buying interest above the short-term moving averages and strong safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][17]. Market Outlook - Despite a temporary weakening in gold prices due to profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar, the overall outlook remains bullish, with expectations for further price increases [3][14]. Economic Data to Watch - Key economic indicators to monitor include U.S. ADP employment numbers, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, global supply chain pressure index, and factory orders, which are generally expected to be favorable for gold prices [4][15]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis shows gold prices are strong, recovering most of the previous month's losses, and if the upward trend continues, there is potential for a bull market with gains exceeding 30%, targeting $5,500 to $6,000 [6][17]. - Weekly analysis indicates a potential for price corrections towards $4,000 to $3,900 if the trend reverses, but the overall trend remains upward with support from moving averages [8][19]. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to maintain a bullish outlook, with specific support levels at $4,430 or $4,385 and resistance levels at $4,515 or $4,550 for gold [10][20].