邦达亚洲:经济数据表现疲软 欧元承压小幅收跌

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 increased by 2.0% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 2.6% increase in November and below the market expectation of 2.2% [1][6] - This unexpected slowdown brings Germany's inflation rate back to the European Central Bank's (ECB) target level of 2% for the first time since June 2025 [1][6] - Economists expect the Eurozone's December CPI year-on-year growth to also fall to the 2% target [1][6] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Analysts indicate that a single month's data is insufficient to prompt the ECB to adjust its current monetary policy stance [1][6] - The ECB's recent forecasts suggest that inflation rates will be slightly below the 2% target in 2026 and 2027, with policymakers expressing confidence in progress against inflation while remaining cautious of potential risks [1][6] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that more aggressive interest rate cuts may be necessary this year to sustain economic growth, suggesting a potential reduction exceeding 100 basis points [7] Group 3: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index experienced slight gains, trading around 98.50, supported by reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions [9] - The euro declined slightly, trading around 1.1700, pressured by the stronger dollar and weak economic data from Germany [10] - The British pound also faced downward pressure, trading near 1.3510, influenced by profit-taking and weak economic indicators from the UK [11]