The Libya Oil Story No One Is Pricing In Yet

Core Insights - Libya holds Africa's largest proved crude oil reserves at 48 billion barrels and aims to increase production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028, with over 40 companies expressing interest in its first oil field licensing round since 2011 [2][3] Group 1: Oil Production and Reserves - Libya's crude oil production was approximately 1.65 million bpd before the civil war, which has since dropped to around 20,000 bpd during the conflict but has recovered to just under 1.4 million bpd [1][2] - The National Oil Corporation (NOC) plans to enhance oil recovery techniques to increase production capacity by about 775,000 bpd at existing fields [1][2] - The Sirte basin contains around 80% of Libya's recoverable reserves and most of its production capacity [1] Group 2: Political and Economic Context - The political stability of Libya remains uncertain, with previous agreements aimed at addressing oil revenue distribution and financial stabilization not fully implemented [3][4] - The blockade from January to September 2020 resulted in a loss of at least US$9.8 billion in hydrocarbons revenues, highlighting the economic impact of political instability [3] Group 3: International Interest and Investment - Major Western firms, including Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil, are re-entering Libya, indicating potential for increased investment and production [2][4] - The NOC's collaboration with international companies aims to leverage their presence to foster political stability and enhance oil production [4][5] - BP has signed a memorandum to evaluate redevelopment options for the Sarir and Messla fields, reflecting strong interest in Libya's energy sector [6]