博时宏观观点：风险偏好上行，春季躁动或可期

Group 1: Overseas Economic Insights - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, but the December PMI indicates a weakening growth margin, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will remain in an easing cycle for the foreseeable future, which may provide some support to the weak segments of the US economy to prevent a recession, although the recovery may be limited [10] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - In December, the manufacturing PMI significantly exceeded expectations, returning to the expansion zone since mid-year, with service and construction PMIs also rebounding, likely boosted by resilient external demand and accelerated progress on major year-end projects, with both supply and demand indicators showing upward movement [10] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, supply concerns have increased again, coupled with tightening year-end liquidity, leading to a slight adjustment in the bond market, with short-term adjustments being more pronounced than long-term ones. The government bond issuance plan for January 2026 is significantly higher than January of the previous year, and with banks likely facing tight liquidity in January, the bond market's support may be limited [10] - The new public fund redemption regulations before the holiday are more moderate than the draft for public consultation, alleviating some redemption pressure in the bond market, but trend opportunities still require clear monetary policy easing or a return of allocation strength [10] Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - The macro environment is favorable for the A-share market due to the easing of US-China relations, continuous appreciation of the RMB, and proactive growth-stabilizing policies, suggesting a potential spring rally. Structurally, it is advisable to focus on technology growth sectors that are at low congestion levels and have industrial catalysts [10] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The appreciation of the RMB is beneficial for improving the liquidity environment in the Hong Kong stock market, and the recent marginal recovery in domestic growth is also favorable for the beta of Hong Kong stocks [11] Group 6: Commodity Market Analysis - In the oil market, global economic fundamentals indicate weak oil demand, continuous supply release, inventory accumulation, and price pressure. US military actions against Venezuela may increase short-term oil price volatility, while long-term capacity release could suppress oil prices [11] - In the gold market, the recent easing of US-China tariff frictions and a shift in Trump's policy focus from trade to domestic issues have reduced uncertainty. Coupled with high short-term congestion in gold, the risk premium may gradually converge, and the pace of gold price increases may slow down, although the long-term development trend remains positive [11]