2026，预见|固收篇：双轨叙事——在“AI狂潮”与“财政发力”中捕捉结构红利

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The world economy in 2026 is characterized by a "dual performance" driven by AI and fiscal expansion, with AI-related investments contributing nearly 1% to the US GDP [3][19] - Global trade growth is expected to slow significantly to 0.5% in 2026, down from a predicted 2.4% in 2025, due to high tariffs and declining overall demand [3][19] - Major central banks are entering a rate-cutting cycle, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates 3-4 times in 2026, while the European Central Bank maintains its rate at 2.0% [3][19] Group 2: China's Economic Narrative - 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a target of maintaining an average annual GDP growth rate of around 4.4% to double per capita GDP by 2035 [4][20] - The "involution" issue stems from a bottleneck in growth models and a singular evaluation standard, leading to overcapacity and competition among local governments [5][21] - The central government's focus on national resource allocation efficiency contrasts with local governments' emphasis on local value, tax revenue, and employment, complicating the "anti-involution" process [5][21] Group 3: Policy Coordination - The macroeconomic policy approach emphasizes fiscal expansion while monetary policy plays a supportive role, with expectations of rapid government bond issuance in early 2026 [6][22] - There is potential for increasing the narrow deficit ratio, special government bonds, and local government special bonds to address fiscal pressures [6][22] - The central bank is expected to ensure adequate liquidity, potentially through interest rate cuts and increased bond purchases [6][22] Group 4: Interest Rate Bonds - The interest rate bond market in 2026 is anticipated to exhibit a "strong oscillation" pattern, with ten-year government bond yields expected to fluctuate within a defined range [7][23] - The lower boundary of this range is supported by a gradual decline in economic growth and moderate inflation, necessitating a conducive environment for fiscal and monetary policies [7][23] - The market structure is evolving, with insurance funds increasingly purchasing long-term government bonds, while brokerages and funds are net sellers [7][23] Group 5: Credit Bonds - The credit bond market is expected to enter a "high spread normalization" phase in 2026, with stable supply-demand dynamics leading to high volatility in credit spreads [9][25] - The supply structure is changing, with a significant increase in industrial bonds, particularly in the technology sector, contributing to a net supply increase of approximately 400 billion yuan [9][25] - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, with wealth management products reaching 32.13 trillion yuan, providing stable funding for credit bonds [9][25] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market may experience a unique situation of "tight supply and expanding demand" in 2026, with over 100 convertible bonds delisted in 2025 [11][27] - The supply structure is highly concentrated in five industries, which may lead to increased dependence on these sectors for future convertible bond performance [11][27] - Public funds are becoming the main holders of convertible bonds, with their share rising from approximately 34% to 42% [11][27]