“压力并非只是感觉”，2025年中国就业市场怎么了

Group 1 - The core issue of employment in 2025 is characterized by a macroeconomic stability contrasted with individual feelings of insecurity, indicating a structural imbalance in the job market [2][3] - Employment opportunities are not disappearing, but the availability of "good jobs" that are easy to find and secure is declining [2][3] Group 2 - The transformation of industrial structure is leading to a decrease in employment absorption capacity in traditional labor-intensive sectors, while new industries are still in a phase of selective hiring [4] - Economic growth is slowing down, and uncertainty is increasing, causing companies to adopt a more cautious approach to hiring [4] - Weak consumer recovery is limiting the expansion of traditional employment sectors, leading to conservative hiring practices [4] Group 3 - The supply-side pressure is unprecedented, with the number of college graduates reaching 12.22 million in 2025, continuing a trend of record-high graduate numbers [5] - The youth unemployment rate remains high, fluctuating between 16% and 18% for those aged 16-24, significantly above the overall unemployment rate of around 5% [6] - Risk-averse choices among youth are increasing, with more opting for civil service exams and delayed employment [6] Group 4 - The labor participation rate has declined by approximately 1.9% to 2.3% from pre-pandemic levels, indicating a significant number of individuals exiting the labor market [8] - Despite an increase in the share of labor compensation in GDP, workers feel little improvement in income, with disparities in income growth across different sectors [9] Group 5 - The employment issue is fundamentally one of "mismatch" rather than "disappearance," with a significant portion of the workforce unable to find suitable positions due to skill mismatches [10] - There is a notable mismatch in expectations, with youth seeking job stability and security that the market cannot adequately provide [11] Group 6 - The impact of AI on employment is significant, leading to job polarization where high-skill jobs are expanding while middle-skill jobs are being compressed [15][16] - New job opportunities are emerging in AI-related fields, but there is a growing gap in the skills required for these positions [15][16] Group 7 - Flexible employment and new job forms are expanding, becoming a crucial channel for income generation, yet they face challenges such as income volatility and lack of social security [17] - The introduction of mandatory social insurance regulations reflects the need for adaptation in the face of diverse employment forms [18] Group 8 - The early return of migrant workers to rural areas is driven by weak demand in construction and manufacturing, highlighting the changing dynamics of labor mobility [20][21] - The employment risks for migrant workers have shifted from simply finding work to concerns about job security and income reliability [22] Group 9 - The coexistence of "lying flat" and "involution" reflects the rational choices of workers in a competitive job market, where the quality of job growth lags behind labor supply [23][24] - The structural employment issues in 2025 necessitate a multifaceted policy approach that addresses income distribution, consumption, and labor market dynamics [25][26]