平安鑫利混合基金经理王华：全球双宽周期下 资源品与周期股迎来配置良机

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the global economy is entering a dual easing cycle of fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, which will create new development opportunities for cyclical sectors [1] - The report highlights that developed countries are accelerating their re-industrialization processes through fiscal expansion, driven by trends in energy security and industrial chain security, which will support commodity prices [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement 2 to 3 interest rate cuts in 2026, further promoting global monetary easing [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in the copper and aluminum industries due to tight supply and steady demand growth, presenting good investment opportunities [1] - The long-term allocation value of precious metals, particularly gold, is highlighted as increasingly significant in the context of global instability and rising debt, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset [1] - The Chinese Central Economic Work Conference's focus on deepening supply-side reforms and price recovery is seen as a positive signal for the midstream cyclical sector, indicating a potential bottoming out and recovery space [2] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy constraints combined with demand-side support policies are expected to significantly improve the supply-demand dynamics in cyclical industries such as new energy and chemicals [2] - The acceleration of real estate sales is seen as reducing negative factors in the industry chain, suggesting a potential for recovery by the end of the year [2] - Overall, the cyclical sector in 2026 is anticipated to benefit from the dual expectations of "expansive fiscal" and "expansive monetary" policies globally, along with domestic policy support, providing numerous investment opportunities [2]