长江有色：7日镍价大涨 “妖镍”再起但现货“有价无市”

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have surged significantly due to supply constraints from Indonesia, global macroeconomic easing, and geopolitical risk premiums, despite high visible inventories and seasonal demand weakness [2][3]. Supply Side - Indonesia's policy changes are the largest variable affecting the market, with rumors of a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026, potentially leading to a substantial supply gap [3]. - Adjustments in pricing mechanisms and tax policies in Indonesia may systematically increase global nickel mining and smelting costs [3]. - Geopolitical tensions in resource-rich countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo are raising concerns about the stability of the nickel-cobalt supply chain, adding extra risk premiums to prices [3]. - Despite high visible inventories, which are at multi-year highs, the supply is showing differentiation, with expectations of a rebound in refined nickel production in the medium to long term [3]. Demand Side - Demand remains weak in downstream sectors such as stainless steel and new energy batteries, which are currently in a traditional production lull, leading to low acceptance of high-priced raw materials [3]. - The market is experiencing a "price without market" situation, indicating a disconnect between price increases and actual consumption [3]. - The industrial chain is characterized by a "hot upper and cold lower" pattern, where upstream miners are reluctant to sell, while midstream smelters are encouraged to increase production due to rising prices, but downstream consumption remains flat [3]. Market Outlook - Nickel price trends will heavily depend on the specifics and implementation of Indonesian policies, with market sentiment likely to dominate prices in the short term [4]. - High volatility is expected to become the norm, and investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid chasing prices [4]. - Key data to monitor includes official documents from Indonesia, global inventory depletion rates, and downstream enterprise operating rates for clearer signals in the fundamentals [4].