长江有色：7日锡价大涨 高价抑制采购现货交投清淡

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and industry trends, indicating a strong market sentiment and geopolitical risk premium [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 experienced a significant increase, opening at 348,300 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 364,240 CNY/ton, and closing at 359,050 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 18,180 CNY or 5.33% [1]. - The average price of 1 tin in the Changjiang market rose by 15,200 CNY from the previous day, with current prices ranging from 356,500 CNY/ton to 358,500 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by a significant decline in Myanmar's tin production, which has dropped by 87% from its peak in 2018, and a projected 85% decrease in exports to China from January to October 2025 [2]. - Global tin inventories are at historical lows, with LME stocks at only 5,420 tons, creating a challenging supply gap [2]. - On the demand side, while traditional electronics are in a seasonal downturn, the explosive growth in AI server construction and photovoltaic installations is driving a surge in demand for high-grade tin solder and welding materials [2]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Leading companies in the tin industry are showing strong performance, with Tin Industry Co. reporting a 35.99% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, entering the top 500 listed companies in China [2]. - Other companies like Huaxi Nonferrous and Zijin Mining are also experiencing significant stock price increases and strategic resource collaborations, reflecting the industry's high growth potential [2]. Group 4: Market Characteristics - The current spot market is exhibiting characteristics of "high price with low trading volume," where high prices are significantly suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, leading to transactions primarily driven by rigid demand [3]. Group 5: Short-term Price Forecast - Short-term tin prices are expected to maintain a high oscillation range of 350,000 to 359,000 CNY/ton, with potential corrections if Myanmar's production exceeds expectations or macroeconomic policies change [4].