长江有色：7日铅价上涨 有色牛市氛围加持铅价反弹但交投平淡

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a slight upward trend, driven by macroeconomic sentiment and supply constraints, despite seasonal demand weakness [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 17,530 CNY, reaching a high of 17,860 CNY, and closing at 17,830 CNY, up 320 CNY or 1.83% [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at 2,082 USD, an increase of 11 USD [1]. - The average price for domestic lead in the ccmn market is reported at 17,590 CNY, up 100 CNY [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are evident, with lead concentrate processing fees deeply inverted, indicating tight raw material supply, which supports price stability [2]. - Environmental factors have led to reduced production of recycled lead in Anhui, further tightening supply expectations [2]. - The social inventory of lead ingots is at a historically low level, creating potential risks for stockpiling [2]. Group 3: Seasonal Demand Challenges - The demand from downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers has decreased, reflecting a traditional seasonal slowdown [2]. - Although there is a slight recovery in orders for automotive batteries, demand in sectors like electric bicycles remains weak, leading to a "price increase with low volume" scenario [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Lead prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with upward movement limited by the elasticity of recycled lead production capacity [3]. - Downstream seasonal realities and potential selling pressure from high factory inventories may restrict sustained price increases [3]. - Support for prices comes from macroeconomic easing expectations, strategic mineral resource policies, and low social inventory levels [3].