中金：如何展望存款搬家资金流向?

Group 1 - The capital market is increasingly focused on the trend of deposit migration, with a potential increase of approximately 2-4 trillion yuan in activated funds flowing into non-deposit investment areas by 2026 [1] - The maturity schedule for deposits in 2026 is expected to be more front-loaded, with 32 trillion yuan of long-term deposits maturing, an increase of 4 trillion yuan year-on-year, and 61% of these deposits maturing in Q1 [1] - The current environment suggests a slight increase in risk appetite among Chinese residents, with asset allocation trends shifting towards more liquid deposits and asset management products [2] Group 2 - The demand for insurance is expected to increase, particularly from the bank insurance channel, with premium income projected to grow year-on-year [3] - Bank wealth management is positioned advantageously, but there are concerns regarding net value fluctuations post-valuation adjustments, with a projected growth rate of 8-12% for wealth management in 2026 [3] - The low interest rate environment and deepening capital market reforms are likely to enhance the attractiveness of fixed-income products, with liquidity for bond funds being supported by recent regulatory changes [3]