瑞银亚洲硬件2026年展望：掘金上游组件与代工厂，规避高成本品牌商

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that 2026 will witness strong growth in the AI supply chain, driven by the expansion of capital expenditures from hyperscale cloud service providers, rapid advancements in AI hardware technology, and a tight supply chain for components [1] Group 2 - Capital expenditures from top global cloud service providers are expected to increase by 34% year-on-year in 2026, reaching approximately $424 billion, primarily fueled by the ongoing expansion of cloud services and internet businesses, with cloud service revenue growth rebounding to over 28% [2] Group 3 - The report predicts a prosperous coexistence of AI GPUs and custom chips (ASICs) in 2026, with Nvidia's Blackwell platform expected to enter large-scale delivery, anticipating the delivery of around 60,000 racks throughout the year [3] - Google and Amazon are leading the deployment of custom chips, with Google's TPU v7 and Amazon's Trainium T3 expected to be widely deployed in 2026, while Meta plans to launch its ASIC solution in the second half of the same year [3] Group 4 - Traditional general-purpose servers are also showing a recovery growth in the high single to mid-single digits, alongside the AI boom [4] Group 5 - The report highlights an uneven distribution of growth benefits across the supply chain, with markets for rack power supplies, cooling, and PCB substrates expected to continue expanding, while tight supply of various raw materials, especially memory, creates a "seller's market" benefiting component suppliers [5] - Due to high prices of storage components, the report has downgraded the 2026 PC shipment forecast, expecting a 4% decline, while smartphone growth is also expected to slow to 2% due to rising commodity prices [5] Group 6 - The report suggests that the driving factors for stock prices in 2026 will be sales and profit growth rather than further valuation expansion, identifying the best opportunities among suppliers that can benefit from the increase in AI server deployments and enhance unit value or added value [6] - Recommended stocks include server ODM manufacturers (Quanta, Hon Hai, Wistron, Wistron NeWeb) and component suppliers (Delta, Jentech, AVC), as well as Largan Precision, which benefits from upgrades in foldable screens and variable aperture specifications [6] - The report takes a more cautious stance on brand companies (ASUS, Lenovo, Gigabyte, MSI) and ODM and component companies (Compal, Pegatron, Inventec, JMicron) that are less likely to benefit from AI server growth due to high input costs, especially in storage [6]