China National Gold (SH:600916) Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-07 09:36Group 1: Market Overview - The precious metals market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, particularly influenced by a significant drop in the external market during the afternoon, leading to downward pressure on the domestic market [1] - Spot gold briefly fell below $4,450 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 1%, while spot silver dropped below $79 per ounce, with a daily decline of 3% [1] - As of 17:13 Beijing time, spot gold was reported at $4,464.49 per ounce, down 0.65%, and spot silver at $79.31 per ounce, down 2.35% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The pullback in precious metals may be driven by two factors: short-term technical profit-taking pressure and market reactions to the upcoming Bloomberg Commodity Index annual rebalancing, prompting some investors to realize profits early [1] - The market outlook suggests that precious metals may enter a high-level consolidation phase to absorb selling pressure [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the ADP employment figures and JOLTs job openings is anticipated, with a focus on the U.S. non-farm payroll report, which could indicate a weakening labor market and influence market expectations for future interest rate cuts [2] - Current market pricing indicates a roughly 50% probability for a rate cut in March, with full pricing expected by June [2] Group 4: Gold Reserves and Predictions - China's gold reserves reached $319.45 billion at the end of December, up from $310.6 billion at the end of November, with a total of 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces [2] - The World Gold Council reported that global official gold reserves held by overseas governments exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.82 trillion based on November gold prices [5] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will rise to $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, continued central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold is in a high-level consolidation phase, with prices above the 100-hour moving average around $4,400, which serves as significant dynamic support [6] - The MACD indicator has fallen below the signal line, indicating increased short-term pullback pressure, while the RSI has dropped to around 48, reflecting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces [6] - For silver, the technical indicators show that bulls still control the market, although the RSI has entered an overbought state, suggesting a potential for a pullback if prices fall below $80.00 [7]