铜价高位震荡：短期调整不改长期上行趋势，结构性短缺支撑“超级周期”

Core Viewpoint - The copper futures market is experiencing a "slowdown in price increase and adjustment," with short-term demand weakness contrasting with long-term supply shortages, which are expected to support copper prices in the future [1][11]. Short-term Adjustment Reasons - Demand Weakness: Traditional sectors are dragging down demand, while emerging demand has not fully materialized. The operating rates of copper rod and cable enterprises have dropped significantly due to price mismatches, leading to reduced production [2]. - Emotional Factors: High copper prices have led to profit-taking among speculators, contributing to price volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policy changes have also increased market unpredictability [3]. - Inventory Accumulation: Domestic refined copper inventories have increased, reflecting a short-term contradiction between weak demand and sufficient supply, which puts pressure on copper prices [4]. Long-term Support for Price Increase - Structural Shortages: Global copper mine supply remains tight, with major mining companies reporting a decrease in copper production. The overall increase in supply is limited, with expectations for only 612,000 tons of new copper mine output in 2026 [5][6]. - Emerging Demand: New sectors such as AI, energy storage, and renewable energy are driving copper demand. Predictions indicate significant increases in copper consumption from data centers and lithium-ion battery production in the coming years [7]. Future Trends - Short-term (1-2 months): Copper prices are expected to remain in a "high-level fluctuation" pattern, influenced by traditional demand weakness and inventory accumulation, while speculative buying may provide some support [8]. - Mid-term (3-4 months): Supply shortages are anticipated to worsen, supporting copper prices, alongside the gradual release of emerging demand. Price targets may exceed $14,000 per ton [9]. - Long-term (5-12 months): The "super cycle" for copper prices is expected to continue, driven by structural shortages and rising demand from new sectors. Long-term prices may surpass $16,000 per ton, setting new historical highs [10]. Conclusion - The recent short-term adjustment in copper prices is attributed to "demand weakness" and "emotional fluctuations," rather than a reversal of the long-term trend. The long-term outlook remains positive, supported by structural shortages and emerging demand. Investors should focus on "demand recovery" and "inventory digestion" in the short term while seizing "structural opportunities" in the long term [11].