从巨星科技，看中国企业出海韧性

Core Viewpoint - The company, Giant Star Technology (002444.SZ), forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.309 to 2.654 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.20% to 15.20% [1][17]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit of approximately 274 to 619 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth ranging from -26.15% to 66.84% [1][17]. - The median estimate for Q4 2025 net profit is about 447 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of approximately 20.35%, which shows an acceleration compared to the growth rates of Q1 to Q3 2025 [1][17]. - The total revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to be around 3.65 billion yuan, with a decline of less than 2% year-on-year, which is an improvement from the -5.80% decline in Q3 2025 [1][17]. Market Dynamics - The company has faced challenges due to the trade war initiated by former President Trump, which negatively impacted domestic production capacity and industry sales [3][20]. - Despite these challenges, the company has successfully adjusted its production capacity by relocating to Vietnam and Thailand, which is expected to cover 90% of its export share to the U.S. by the end of 2025 [22][25]. Product Development - The company has seen significant growth in its electric tools segment, achieving revenue of 742 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56.03% [25][28]. - The electric tools business is anticipated to further expand in 2026, contributing to the company's second growth curve [25][28]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to actively explore new business opportunities and product lines in 2026 to regain a reasonable growth trajectory [20][22]. - The company’s resilience has been recognized in the capital market, with its stock price rising by 8.91% following the earnings forecast announcement [5][20].