国家发改委：蛋鸡养殖每只亏损26.60元 今年鸡蛋价格能否迎来反转？

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is entering a critical turning point in 2026, with supply pressures expected to ease as the number of laying hens declines, creating favorable conditions for market balance [1][5]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The number of laying hens is projected to decrease from high levels, with expectations that by mid-2026, the stock will fall below 1.3 billion [1][5]. - The trend of capacity reduction is becoming evident, as the profitability of poultry farming has worsened since May 2022, leading farmers to adjust their breeding strategies and significantly reduce the number of chicks being raised [5][11]. - The culling of older hens is accelerating, with the average age of culled hens dropping to around 490 days, indicating a peak in culling expected in the first quarter of 2026 [5][11]. Group 2: Price and Profitability - The current price of eggs is 6.02 yuan per kilogram, while feed costs are at 2.66 yuan per kilogram, resulting in a feed-to-egg price ratio of 2.34, with a projected loss of 26.60 yuan per hen [3][9]. - Despite a slight increase in egg prices due to pre-New Year stocking, prices have stabilized as downstream stocking ends, with expectations of a modest price increase in the coming week [3][9]. - The egg market is characterized by uncertainty and development opportunities, with the restructuring of supply and demand dynamics being a key focus for the year [3][11]. Group 3: Demand Factors - Seasonal fluctuations in demand persist, but there are structural positive changes, with a slowdown in restaurant revenue growth potentially suppressing some demand [5][11]. - The expected pressure on pork prices in the first half of the year may enhance the cost-effectiveness of eggs, providing a supportive alternative demand for the egg market [5][11].