NCE平台:黄金与实物资产迎来溢价

Group 1 - The global macro environment is entering a high volatility cycle, with a significant paradigm shift in the international economic order established since World War II [1] - The market has entered a new era dominated by "national activism," as indicated by the recent surge in silver prices above $80 per ounce and copper prices reaching $6 per pound, reflecting deep impacts of geopolitical fractures [1] - The strong performance of commodities is essentially pricing in the collapse of the old order, with power logic replacing efficiency logic as the core driver of capital flows [1] Group 2 - The surge in sovereign credit risk is forcing capital to flow towards safe-haven assets, with the U.S. federal deficit projected to reach $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2025 and debt-to-GDP ratio climbing to 99.8%, alongside interest payments exceeding $1 trillion for the first time [3][4] - Central banks are expected to continue strong diversification strategies in gold reserves in 2025, which not only supports gold prices but also indicates a return to a "currency-neutral" and physical asset-based global reserve system [4] - Investors are warned about the "leverage trap" in the mining sector, as rising costs and tightening regulations are squeezing the profitability of mining companies despite a projected 67% increase in gold prices in 2025 [2][4] - Production costs for major gold miners are expected to rise to $1,600 per ounce in 2026, with several resource-rich countries tightening administrative control over mining rights [2][4] - In the strategic metals sector, physical scarcity is becoming the main driver of prices, with a projected supply gap of over 300,000 tons for refined copper in 2026 due to geopolitical-driven supply chain "restructuring" [2][4] - The old investment narratives are no longer valid, and future market clarity will belong to those who can recognize the value of "resource sovereignty" and prioritize physical assets over paper derivatives [2][4]