GTC泽汇资本:黄金牛市的结构性机遇

Core Insights - Despite gold reaching historical highs in 2025, both institutional and retail investors in the U.S. show surprising indifference towards precious metal holdings, indicating a significant structural opportunity for price increases [1][3] - Current holdings are far from saturation, suggesting a "configuration gap" that allows for substantial upward movement in gold prices [1][3] Market Data - U.S. investors' gold ETF holdings are currently 6 basis points lower than the historical peak in 2012 [1][4] - In Q2 of this year, gold ETFs accounted for only 0.17% of U.S. private financial portfolios, which is negligible compared to the over $100 trillion stock and bond market [1][4] - More than half of large institutions managing over $100 million do not hold any gold ETFs, with long-term investors averaging only 20 basis points in allocation [4] Institutional Recommendations - Major Wall Street firms like UBS, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock are actively advocating for increased gold positions, with notable investors like Ray Dalio viewing gold as a core strategic asset against macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4] - The gap between "sell-side recommendations" and "buy-side underexposure" is evolving into a strong catalyst for the next phase of gold price surges [2][4] Technological Developments - Tether's recent launch of the Scudo unit, which tokenizes gold and breaks it down to one-thousandth of an ounce, aims to address measurement challenges in daily commercial transactions [2][4] - This improvement in payment infrastructure is transitioning gold from a mere "store of value" to a "medium of exchange," expanding its application within the modern financial system [2][4] Long-term Outlook - The severe underexposure of institutional holdings combined with ongoing upgrades in trading infrastructure forms a dual engine for long-term gold price increases [5] - With persistent inflationary pressures and rising risk aversion, the current gold price breakout may signify the beginning of a redefined role for gold [5] - The upward momentum in the precious metals market appears to remain strong, as both silver and spot gold continue to reach new highs [5]