Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-07 10:34Core Viewpoint - The company Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is expected to experience significant profit growth in 2025, driven by both increased production and rising commodity prices, particularly gold and copper [3][19]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The forecast for 2025 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 51-52 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 59%-62% [3][19]. - The non-recurring net profit is expected to be around 47.5-48.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 50%-53% [3][19]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 52.1 billion yuan, exceeding capital expenditures by about 37 billion yuan, indicating strong cash generation [29]. Group 2: Production and Resource Expansion - The company has completed several key acquisitions, including the Ghana Akim Gold Mine and the Kazakhstan Raygorodok Gold Mine, which have significantly increased its resource reserves [5][20]. - In 2025, the company is projected to produce approximately 90 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 17 tons, and 1.09 million tons of copper, an increase of 20,000 tons [5][20]. - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to reach approximately 25,000 tons, a substantial increase from 261 tons in 2024 [5][20]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The prices of gold and copper are anticipated to rise due to factors such as global interest rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical risks, and strong downstream demand [7][22]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the selling prices of gold and copper increased by 44.42% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively, enhancing profit margins [8][23]. Group 4: Cost Pressures - Despite high profits, the company faces cost pressures, with unit costs for gold and copper rising by 15.2% and 14.4%, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2025 [10][25]. - Factors contributing to increased costs include deeper mining operations, rising stripping ratios, and higher costs for blasting, transportation, and processing [10][25]. Group 5: Strategic Management - The company employs a counter-cyclical acquisition strategy, acquiring quality resources during industry downturns at lower costs [12][27]. - In the current high-price environment, the company is focusing on optimizing existing assets rather than aggressive expansion [29][31]. - The management transition to a new chairman is expected to be smooth, as the core team possesses extensive mining experience [32].