ATFX汇评:小非农ADP数据来袭 市场预期增加4.7万人

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming ADP employment change data for December is expected to show a significant recovery in the U.S. labor market, with a forecast of 47,000 jobs added compared to a previous decline of 32,000 jobs, which could reduce the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, positively impacting the U.S. dollar index [1][8]. Group 1: ADP Employment Data - The ADP employment change data is referred to as a "small non-farm" indicator and is seen as a precursor to the more authoritative non-farm payroll report due on Friday [1][8]. - Historical trends indicate that the ADP data has shown a downward trajectory over the past year, with projections for December 2024 to April 2025 suggesting a range of 60,000 to 186,000 jobs, which is considered normal [3][10]. - A significant decline in ADP data is expected starting May 2025, with concentrated negative values observed in June, August, September, and November, indicating a major crisis in the U.S. labor market [3][10]. Group 2: Labor Market Analysis - The current labor market challenges are attributed to factors such as aggressive immigration policies, the impact of artificial intelligence, and unclear economic policies, which have reduced companies' willingness to hire [3][10]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is historically known to often contradict the ADP data, suggesting that while ADP data is useful for reference, it should not be the sole basis for judgment [3][10]. Group 3: Dollar Index Trends - The U.S. dollar index is currently in a consolidation phase, with a lower limit of 96.34 and an upper limit of 100.23, indicating a wide trading range that has persisted for about six months [6][13]. - Recent trading days have shown signs of a potential rebound in the dollar index, with increased volatility and a possibility of breaking through the upper limit of the trading range if the upward momentum continues [7][13].