Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-07 11:36Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the half-price purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles and the adjustment of the "two new" subsidy policies have introduced new variables for the domestic automotive market in 2026, leading to divergent sales targets among various automakers [1] Group 1: Traditional Automakers - Geely has set the highest sales target for 2026 at 3.45 million units, with a growth rate of 14%, including 2.75 million for the Geely brand, 300,000 for Zeekr, and 400,000 for Lynk & Co [2] - Dongfeng Group aims for a total sales target of 3.25 million units in 2026, with an estimated growth rate of over 30%, including 1.7 million for new energy vehicles, representing a 63% increase [3] - Chery Group has set a sales target of 3.2 million units for 2026, reflecting a 14% increase from 2025, with its five brands aiming for a total of 3 million units [3] - Great Wall Motors has lowered its 2026 sales target from 2.49 million to 1.8 million units, indicating a 36% growth from the previous year, while maintaining its net profit target [4] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Startups - Leap Motor has set an ambitious sales target of 1 million units for 2026, following a record of 597,000 units sold in 2025, which is a 103.1% increase [5] - Xiaomi Auto aims for a sales target of 550,000 units in 2026, representing a 34% increase from the previous year, with new models expected to launch [5] - NIO has set a sales target of 456,000 to 489,000 units for 2026, with a growth rate of 40-50%, following a total of 326,000 units sold in 2025 [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend in 2026, with overall growth driven by supportive national policies, countering previous expectations of negative growth [6] - The new policies, including the early implementation of replacement subsidies, are anticipated to positively impact market growth and consumer upgrades [6]