日元未现加速贬值 央行政策路径关键数据指引方向

Group 1 - The core factors influencing the Japanese yen include concerns over Japan's fiscal situation, rising risk appetite, and uncertainty regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which continues to exert pressure on the yen's exchange rate [1] - The Japanese Cabinet recently approved a record annual budget of 122.3 trillion yen, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and impacting market sentiment towards the yen [1] - Market risk appetite remains relatively high, diminishing the yen's appeal as a traditional safe-haven currency, while there is significant disagreement among investors regarding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's policy direction has not fundamentally changed, with the Governor indicating that as long as economic and inflation trends align with expectations, the central bank will continue to pursue interest rate hikes [2] - The hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan has led to a rise in Japanese government bond yields, narrowing the interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies, which has made market participants more cautious about aggressive short positions on the yen [2] Group 3 - The US dollar's upward momentum is limited by ongoing expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a more conservative approach among dollar bulls [3] - Investors are awaiting key macroeconomic data from the US, including ADP private sector employment data and the non-farm payroll report, which will be crucial for assessing the dollar's future trajectory [3] Group 4 - Technically, the USD/JPY pair is showing a strong oscillating pattern, with key support at 156.15, which corresponds to the 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart [4] - The MACD indicator shows a gradual decrease in bearish momentum, while the RSI is in a neutral zone, indicating a current state of consolidation in the market [4] - Key price levels include 156.10 as a critical support level, with potential for a new downward trend if breached, while resistance is focused around 157.15, which could open further upward movement if surpassed [4]