上海国际航运研究中心：去年四季度航运景气度持续回升

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry in China is experiencing a mixed outlook, with some sectors showing resilience while others face challenges. The overall shipping confidence is expected to decline in the first quarter of 2026, indicating potential headwinds ahead for the industry. Group 1: Overall Shipping Industry - The China Shipping Prosperity Index for Q4 2025 is reported at 112.23 points, an increase of 0.61 points from the previous quarter, indicating relative prosperity [1] - The Shipping Confidence Index for Q4 2025 stands at 120.20 points, up 7.80 points, moving from a relative prosperity range to a more prosperous range [1] - For Q1 2026, the Shipping Prosperity Index is projected to drop to 106.69 points, a decrease of 5.54 points, indicating a shift to a mild prosperity range [1][6] - The Shipping Confidence Index for Q1 2026 is expected to fall to 96.12 points, down 24.08 points, entering a weakly recessionary range [1][6] Group 2: Bulk Shipping Sector - The Bulk Shipping Prosperity Index for Q4 2025 is at 124.29 points, an increase of 5.62 points, indicating a more prosperous range [3] - The Bulk Shipping Confidence Index is reported at 133.57 points, up 4.40 points, maintaining a prosperous range [3] - Operational indicators for bulk shipping companies show increased capacity investment, reduced operating costs, and improved freight income, leading to enhanced profitability [3] Group 3: Container Shipping Sector - The Container Shipping Prosperity Index for Q4 2025 is at 124.61 points, a recovery of 6.54 points, moving to a more prosperous range [4] - However, the Container Shipping Confidence Index has decreased to 88.57 points, down 7.06 points, indicating a relative recessionary range [4] - Despite improved operational conditions, confidence in the overall industry development remains low among container shipping entrepreneurs [4] Group 4: Port Sector - The Port Sector Prosperity Index for Q4 2025 is reported at 104.53 points, a decline of 19.72 points, indicating a mild prosperity range [5] - The Port Sector Confidence Index is at 127.17 points, down 7.83 points, remaining in a relatively prosperous range [5] - Port companies are experiencing stable profitability despite high operational costs and decreased throughput, supported by increased berth utilization [5] Group 5: Shipping Services Sector - The Shipping Services Prosperity Index for Q4 2025 is at 106.18 points, an increase of 7.42 points, moving to a mild prosperity range [5] - The Shipping Services Confidence Index has risen to 121.02 points, up 25.26 points, transitioning from a weakly recessionary range to a more prosperous range [5] Group 6: Future Market Outlook - The shipping market in 2026 is expected to face significant uncertainty, with external factors such as geopolitical conflicts and new environmental regulations impacting price volatility [7] - Over half of the shipping companies surveyed believe that shipping market prices will remain stable in 2026 [7] - A recent policy to suspend port fees between the US and China is anticipated to positively influence cargo volumes, with nearly 60% of shipping companies expecting a beneficial impact [7]